High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
The Budget assumes significance as it comes on the back of lower-than-expected growth numbers during the second quarter and geopolitical uncertainty.
Simplifying investment policies at the micro level and introducing a time-bound framework will be critical for India's growth targets, notes Krishna Ella.
Job creation, improving farm productivity, and mobilising public funds for infrastructure development were some of the issues that figured during the interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and economists ahead of the 2025-26 Union Budget. The prime minister on Tuesday met eminent economists and sectoral experts at NITI Aayog to hear their views and suggestions for the upcoming Budget. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Budget for 2025-26 in the Lok Sabha on February 1, 2025.
'That way you're not hostage just to US sort of exports to India.'
In the last 11 years, India and the world witnessed what he stood for, what he promised and did not deliver, and what he actually stood for and practised without fearing how history would judge him. Modi's tenure has been punctuated with headline-grabbing decisions, symbolic gestures, and stage-managed moments that continue to define his leadership and India's politics, points out Ramesh Menon.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday announced a Rs 11.11 lakh crore spending on infrastructure and vowed to continue reforms as she resisted resorting to populist measures in Modi government's last Budget before general elections, instead choosing to stay on the path of cutting deficit while bolstering measures for focus groups.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced six new schemes and increased the subsidised Kisan Credit Card (KCC) loan limit to Rs 7 lakh from Rs 5 lakh, targeting everything from unemployment to crop productivity enhancement across the country. Presenting her eighth budget speech in Parliament, Sitharaman positioned agriculture as "the first engine of growth" and unveiled the Prime Minister Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana, a flagship program targeting 100 agri-districts grappling with low productivity, moderate crop intensity, and below-average credit parameters.
The Finance Ministry's annual report has revealed that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) funded seven projects worth USD 750 million in India during the 2023-24 fiscal year. The projects, implemented in partnership with the Indian government, cover areas like agriculture and food security, water and sanitation, renewable energy, disaster management, health, sustainable forests, and climate adaptation. This disclosure comes amidst controversy over USAID's alleged role in influencing Indian elections, with claims that the agency allocated USD 21 million to India for 'voter turnout'. However, the report clarifies that no funds were dedicated to enhancing voter turnout.
There are challenges galore before him, and it is not going to be easy. In the next four years, he has to conjure a system that changes the optics about him and the BJP both nationally and internationally so that he can ride back on his own, claim the top slot, and not have to lean on a coalition, asserts Ramesh Menon as Modi 3.0 completes a year in power.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
India and New Zealand have signed a pact to institutionalize their defence ties and vowed to boost cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised concerns about anti-India activities by some illegal elements in New Zealand with his Kiwi counterpart Christopher Luxon. The two sides also signed six agreements to enhance cooperation in areas including education, sports, agriculture, and climate change. They also agreed to prepare a roadmap for cooperation in the defence industry sector and explore early implementation of cooperation in the digital payments sector.
'The true measure of Project Tiger's success is not just rising tiger numbers, but our ability to ensure harmonious human-wildlife coexistence'
A provision of Rs 15,000 crore has been made in the budgetary estimate of 2016-17 towards interest subvention.
Passenger vehicle retail sales in India witnessed a 10 per cent on-year jump in July driven by new model launches and enhanced discounts, industry body FADA said on Monday. Total passenger vehicle retail sales rose to 3,20,129 units in July, as compared to 2,90,564 units in July 2023. "Dealers reported benefits from good product availability, attractive schemes, and a wider range of products," the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) vice president C S Vigneshwar said in a statement.
The challenge for politicians is that the continuous electoral cycle favours short-termism and the loan waiver type of policy, whereas prosperity requires hard decisions where commonly held perceptions must be disrupted and over-turned, says Dhiraj Nayyar.
State-owned Punjab & Sind Bank is targeting salary accounts to boost the share of low-cost deposits. Swarup Saha, managing director and chief executive officer of the New Delhi-based lender, tells Manojit Saha that the bank may see gross non-performing assets (NPAs) fall below 8 per cent if there is resolution of the stressed assets.
India's e-commerce market alone is projected to reach $200 billion by 2026, making it a prime industry for ambitious entrepreneurs, explains rediffGURU Harsh Bharwani.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to hold pre-budget consultations with industry chambers on June 20, sources said. The budget for 2024-25 fiscal is likely to be presented in Parliament in the second half of July. Industry sources said the pre-budget consultation with Sitharaman would be preceded by a meeting with Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on June 18.
The reforms will help FPOs procure directly from farmers, something that they have been pressing for long.
The two-wheeler segment has shown signs of recovery in the first half (H1) of calendar year (CY) 2024, largely driven by improving performance in rural areas. According to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, rural contribution to two-wheeler sales surged by 57-60 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2024-25, indicating a rising demand in these regions. Experts believe that this trend will continue, supported by a favourable monsoon season and government initiatives aimed at rural development.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to strike a fine balance between being fiscally prudent and growth supportive when she presents her fourth straight budget on Tuesday, which is expected to have plans to boost spending to revive investment and create jobs. The Budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2022 is likely to raise spending on infrastructure to set the economy on a firmer footing. The stage for the Budget presentation was set by the Economic Survey stating that the government has the fiscal space to do more to support the economy that is forecast to grow at a healthy 8-8.5 per cent growth in the 2022-23 fiscal.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
In his tax proposals he announced that there will be no change in the rates of personal income tax. He further announced that there will be no new taxes on income.
The economy could grow at 6-6.5 per cent this fiscal year (2019-20 or FY20), said Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian, revising his earlier estimate of 7 per cent in the Economic Survey. In an interaction with Arup Roychoudhury, he said supply-side measures, including corporation tax cuts, will boost consumption and demand, and non-tax revenue may make up for shortfall in tax revenues.
Outlining the roadmap to achieve 7-8 per cent economic growth on sustained basis, the Economic Survey on Wednesday indicated major initiatives in the Union Budget to overhaul tax system, slash deficit, contain prices and boost agriculture.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
'There is a great scope for enhancing the use of organic fertilisers'.
This period of strong growth not only offers opportunities but also calls for strategic considerations to ensure sustainable development and equitable prosperity in the years to come, suggests Sujan Hajra.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday said both public and private sectors need to leverage synergies and think out of the box to seize opportunities arising as a result of the emerging global environment. While interacting with noted economists and experts at NITI Aayog ahead of the Union Budget, the prime minister also applauded the success of the India Digital story and the rapid adoption of fintech across the country, an official statement said. During the meeting, economists offered suggestions on ways in which India can sustain its development momentum, it added.
Notwithstanding robust volume growth and a strong performance from Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Tata Motors, the country's second-largest automobile (auto) manufacturer by market capitalisation, disappointed the Street with its January-March quarter (Q4) results for 2023-24 (FY24). While consolidated revenues saw a 13 per cent increase, lower-than-expected realisations in the Indian operations weighed down overall performance.
Indicators show green shoots in the economy with electricity and fuel consumption, inter and intra-state movement of goods, PMI data and retail financial transactions witnessing a pick-up, she said.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that it is imperative to maintain high growth rates.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
The farm sector has been resilient to the COVID-19 shock and is estimated to grow at 3.9 per cent this fiscal, the Economic Survey said on Monday, while suggesting to the government to give priority to crop diversification, allied farm sectors and alternative fertilisers like Nano urea. The Economic Survey 2021-22 also pitched for increasing agriculture research and development (R&D) and organic farming, besides use of new technologies like drones. "The performance of the agriculture and the allied sector has been resilient to the COVID-19 shock. ...Growth in allied sectors including livestock, dairying and fisheries has been the major drivers of overall growth in the sector," the Survey said. The agriculture sector has experienced buoyant growth in the past two years.
The fact that Gehlot has stayed relevant these five years with his populist schemes is one reason why he may beat incumbency in a state that votes for change every election, observes Ramesh Menon.
